The _____ involves estimating the likelihood of an event based on how easy it is to recall relevant information from memory.

• A. means-end analysis
• B. trial-and-error method
• C. representative heuristic
• D. availability heuristic

Answer: (D)

Verified step by step guidance

1. Identify the key concept in the problem: The problem is asking about a cognitive process that involves estimating the likelihood of an event based on memory recall.
2. Understand the term 'availability heuristic': This is a mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to a person's mind when evaluating a specific topic, concept, method, or decision.
3. Differentiate between the options provided: 'Means-end analysis' is a problem-solving technique that involves breaking down a problem into smaller parts, 'trial-and-error method' involves trying multiple solutions until finding one that works, and 'representative heuristic' involves judging the probability of an event by comparing it to an existing prototype in our minds.
4. Focus on the correct option: The 'availability heuristic' is the correct answer because it specifically involves estimating the likelihood of an event based on how easily relevant information can be recalled from memory.
5. Conclude by reinforcing the understanding: The availability heuristic can lead to biases in decision-making because it relies on immediate examples, which may not always be representative of the actual situation.