The U.S. Department of Justice has established a database that catalogs PCR amplification products from short tandem repeats of the Y chromosome (Y-STRs) in humans. The database contains polymorphisms of five U.S. ethnic groups (African-Americans, European Americans, Hispanics, Native Americans, and Asian-Americans) as well as the worldwide population.

For forensic applications, the probability of a 'match' for a crime scene DNA sample and a suspect's DNA often culminates in a guilty or innocent verdict. How is a 'match' determined, and what are the uses and limitations of such probabilities?

Key Concepts

PCR and Y-STRs

Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) is a technique used to amplify specific DNA sequences, making it easier to analyze genetic material. Y-chromosome Short Tandem Repeats (Y-STRs) are specific regions on the Y chromosome that vary among individuals and can be used for male lineage tracing. In forensic science, analyzing Y-STRs helps in identifying male DNA in mixed samples, particularly in sexual assault cases.

Probability of a Match

The probability of a match in forensic DNA analysis refers to the likelihood that a DNA profile from a crime scene sample corresponds to that of a suspect. This is calculated using statistical methods that consider the frequency of specific alleles in the population. A higher probability indicates a stronger likelihood of a match, which can significantly influence legal outcomes, such as determining guilt or innocence.

Limitations of DNA Evidence

While DNA evidence is powerful, it has limitations. Factors such as sample contamination, degradation, and the presence of mixed DNA profiles can affect the accuracy of results. Additionally, the interpretation of statistical probabilities can be complex, and a high match probability does not guarantee that a suspect is the perpetrator, as coincidental matches can occur in large populations.